Changing climate targets in Poland
Europe 
Reflections on this week's events in Poznan from 350.org founder and director, Bill McKibben. This piece is cross-posted from Grist.org.
The big international climate conferences, at least the ones I've been to in Kyoto, the Hague, and elsewhere, are pretty much the same: caffeinated, adrenalized, endless, chaotic, and incredibly hard to read. Much goes on behind closed doors, and small signals from the big players at the last minute generally make the most difference.
I'm not going to Poznan until next week, for the last few days of this conference. And in an odd way, it's been easier to figure out the proceedings from a distance to make out the forest for the trees.
The biggest news so far, I think, has been that some of the parties have absorbed the really salient fact of the last 18 months: the science is changing and changing fast, and the old negotiating positions no longer work, the old lines in the sand are being erased, as it were, by the rising tide.
For almost a decade now, the 'tough' position has been that we shouldn't tolerate more than 450 parts per million co2 in the atmosphere, nor more than a two degree Celsius rise in temperature. When the Europeans proposed those numbers in the 1990s, they were more stringent than the old targets a vague attempt to avoid a doubling of the atmospheric concentration, which was 275 parts per million before we started burning coal and gas and oil. By now they're the consensus middle ground.
But 18 months ago the Arctic melted, decades ahead of schedule and with only 387 parts per million co2 in the atmosphere. Last January, spurred by Jim Hansen's new research, we launched 350.org, arguing that the old numbers were obsolete. Arguing that we finally had a science-based red line to consider. No one likes to shift their position not governments, and not even climate campaigners, who had done yeoman work to get 450 accepted as a goal. But we've seen subtle shifts all year and this week they broke into the open.
On Tuesday, the Least Developed Countries offered their "shared vision" of what a treaty should look like, and they were adamant that 350 ppm needed to be the target. The 49 LDCs comprise a mix of African, Asian, and a few other of the poorest nations and the ones most vulnerable to sea-level rise, the spread of mosquitoes, the loss of drinking water from glaciers, and so on. Earlier the same day, the International Youth Climate Network also endorsed a 350 target. One way of looking at it: those who will be hit first and hardest by climate change, and those who will live with it the longest, have figured out what the bottom line really is.
That understanding will spread, inexorably, as the year goes on towards Copenhagen. It may or may not prove possible to reach a treaty that actually heads us in the necessary direction (Hansen's calculations say it requires coal-burning to cease by 2030, which is a tall order). But at the very least it will become progressively harder to pretend that we don't know where the edge of the cliff actually is.
The Science of 350
Scientists say that 350 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere is the safe limit for humanity. Learn more about 350 – what it means, where it came from, and how to get there. Read More »
Featured Movement Updates
Get mad. Then get busy.
I wrote the first book for a general audience on global warming back in 1989, and I've spent the subsequent 21 years working on the issue. I'm a mild-mannered guy, a Methodist Sunday School teacher. Not quick to anger. So what I want to say is: this is f***d up. The time has come to get mad, and then to get busy. Read Post »
Circle This Date.
It's been an incredible few months of non-stop campaigning here at 350.org--and we're about to kick it into high gear. Starting today, we're pulling out all the stops and charging towards 10/10/10, the "Global Work Party." This one day will be a MASSIVE opportunity to celebrate climate solutions at the local level--and put the pressure on our leaders while doing so. If you don't already know all about 10/10/10, read the NEW invitation letter from 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben. Read Post »
The best way to solve the climate crisis?
A friend recently asked me: "What's the single best way to solve the climate crisis?" The truth is, there is no silver bullet to stopping the climate crisis, no single technological solution that can fix everything at once. We don't just need solar power, or wind power, or efficiency. We need all of these things and more. What we need, in a word, is diversity... Read Post »
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Comments
The 350 target is surely the good one, but what has been done to meet it? In the western countries, nothing, while we are the first responsible for the excess of CO2 in the atmosphere.
So the Least Developped Countries are right to ask us (I am from France) to cut our CO2 emissions, NOW.
It will be a hard move in our way of living. There must be a financial drive for this move. Today, it is exactly the contrary that occurs: in Europe the low cost airlines are much cheaper than the train, while you pump 30 more times CO2 in the air with plane than with train per km.
This carbon tax income (only half of the income, that is the Taca proposition) must be shared between the people of the country on an equal basis, so the poor or low income people will be completly reimbursed for the price raise of the small quantity of oil based products they need for their living.
A man is supporting this carbon tax with dividend: his name is James Hansen (have you heard about him?)
Al Gore also is saying that the carbon tax is the single major policy decision to be taken against global warming.
We need to pressure our governments to set in place this carbon tax with dividend.
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